Unplanned growth costs Dar es Salaam up to 8.5bn/- a day, TICGL study finds
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A new analysis by the Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group puts the daily cost of disorganised urban growth in Dar es Salaam at up to 8.5bn/-, and warns the bill could reach 12bn/- by 2030 if current patterns persist.
Disorganised urban growth in Dar es Salaam is draining up to 8.5bn/- from Tanzania's economy every day through infrastructure repairs, recurring floods and lost tax revenue, according to a new analysis by the Tanzania Investment and Consultant Group (TICGL).
The report, Informal Settlements and the Cost of Unplanned Urban Growth in Dar es Salaam, estimates that the government alone bears between 2.9bn/- and 3.3bn/- daily through infrastructure retrofitting and foregone taxes, while households and businesses absorb further losses from flooding and disrupted economic activity.
A further 1.2bn/- to 1.4bn/- is estimated to be lost each day in potential tax revenue tied to informal economic activity. TICGL projects that the daily bill could climb to 9bn/-, or as much as 12bn/- on the higher side, by 2030 if development continues on its present trajectory.
Dar es Salaam generates an estimated 17 to 20 percent of Tanzania's gross domestic product, yet informal settlements in the city expanded by about 630 percent between 1982 and 2022. The report estimates that 70 to 80 percent of residents now live in informal or unplanned settlements, where inadequate drainage, sanitation and road access raise the cost of doing business and expose communities to flooding.