Lagos real estate boom is worsening flood risk as wetlands disappear, studies warn
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Researchers say rapid urbanisation and land reclamation for real estate development in Lagos are reducing the natural flood buffering of wetlands, with more than 60% of the megacity's urban areas projected to face extreme flooding by 2050.
In July, following relentless bursts of rainfall, flash floods covered pockets of Lagos, disrupting commerce and traffic in Nigeria's commercial capital. Experts have found that the city now faces increased flood risk due to human-induced climate change, and recent studies have identified another common factor exacerbating flooding: rapid urbanisation and a construction boom on natural land cover.
A study published in June examined satellite images of Lekki, a densely populated Lagos district, from 2015 to 2025. The analysis showed that vegetation cover in the neighbourhood decreased by 13% over the 10 years, while water bodies reduced by 6%. Within the same timeline, settlements rose by 10% on natural land cover, which the authors concluded was causing an increase in flooding events in the area.
An earlier study published in February found that between 1984 and 2023, areas with buildings and infrastructure in Lagos expanded by 38%, while forest cover declined by 32% and water bodies reduced by 11%, reducing the natural flood buffering capacity of the megacity. With the persisting loss of vegetation and wetlands, the authors predicted that more than 60% of Lagos' urban areas will be affected by extreme flooding by 2050.
Mark Ofua, the West Africa representative for conservation nonprofit Wild Africa, said a real estate boom was to blame for the increasing ecological loss. "Lagos was historically surrounded by extensive wetlands and mangroves, but everywhere you turn now, especially around the suburbs, there's land reclamation and construction going on," he said. A recent analysis by World Weather Attribution, a network of scientists who analyze extreme weather events, also concluded that the sprawling expansion of housing and development on wetlands, which soak up excess rainwater, puts low-lying coastal cities like Lagos at high risk of flooding.
In May, Nigeria's National Emergency Management Agency issued a flood alert for 15 Lagos communities likely to face flash floods between July and September, typically the peak of Nigeria's rainy season. To control future flooding, Ofua said tougher enforcement on wetland encroachment is crucial, urging the government to declare these areas protected and stop more companies from land reclamation.