Lagos land reclamation will not fix housing affordability on its own, experts warn

Lagos' growing use of land reclamation may be creating more development space, but the expansion of physical land will not necessarily solve the state's housing affordability and urban planning challenges, according to experts who spoke with Nairametrics.

Analysts said the cost of reclaiming and stabilising land, providing infrastructure and managing environmental risks can determine what type of development ultimately takes place on the new land. They warned that the quality and long-term sustainability of reclaimed land depend on proper engineering, planning and monitoring, with poorly executed projects capable of creating settlement, drainage and infrastructure problems beyond their immediate boundaries.

Town planner Niyi Aderohunmu, co-founder and director of Goania Project Ltd, said reclamation can provide additional development space in a city facing intense pressure on land, but argued it should form part of a broader planning strategy rather than a standalone response to land pressure. Real estate investment analyst Olabisi Odusanya said the economics of reclamation determine where new land is created and what is built on it, noting that formal reclamation is more likely to be viable where strong demand and access to capital can support the cost of creating and developing land.

Gbenga Adigun, founder and chief executive of Rebar Perfecta Ltd, said the focus should also be on what happens beneath and after the newly created land, adding that quality depends on understanding the seabed and the fill material and properly managing the ground after filling. Infrastructure governance advocate Babatunji Adegoke warned that reclaimed land should be assessed differently from conventional dry land because ground conditions can continue to change after reclamation, and because raising or filling land can alter existing water movement where a site previously formed part of a drainage or flood-storage system.

The Lagos State Government suspended all land reclamation projects across the state in September 2025, including projects with or without Environmental Impact Assessment approval and drainage clearance, citing concerns over flooding, coastal erosion, environmental degradation and risks to communities. Around the same period, the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, disclosed that the state's landmass had expanded from 3,577 square kilometres to 4,050 square kilometres.

Adigun confirmed that reclamation activities did not stop completely after the suspension, saying enforcement had increasingly shifted towards unauthorised and non-compliant projects. He described the development as a regulatory reset in which properly documented projects can be reviewed and regularised while those blocking waterways face enforcement. Experts say the larger question for Lagos is not simply whether more land can be created, but whether it can be integrated into the city without reproducing the same infrastructure, affordability and planning shortages that already affect existing communities, and note that new reclamation can also alter the value of existing waterfront property by changing lagoon and ocean views.